The key keeps getting lower

Been a mixed week to say the least online. Actually, it's felt like a horror show, it's included my worst downswing to date on Full Tilt (25 consecutive Sit n Goes without a cash), a couple of frustrating nearly misses (twice I got headsup for a GUKPT package, both times I managed to lose), but somehow I've managed to escape from it with a profit overall of $1600. To do that while seemingly running like a zombie with an eating disorder is something of a relief.

Tilt has been going so well for me that there was bound to be a downswing at some point (and most likely just after I post a brag graph boasting how well it's going), but knowing that doesn't make it any less unpleasant or easier to deal with when it happens.

This week online included:

SNGs: Returned to playing some on Ipoker with very good results. Won a few 10 mans and 6 mans. Started really well on Full Tilt, then had the 25 streak, ended wellish. Interesting spot in the last 45 man I played on Tilt. The bubble had just broken. The pay structure is such that there's bugger all difference between 5th and 6th (less than half a buyin), but after that it gets steeper (just under 2 buyins between 5th and 4th, just over 2 between 4th and 3rd, 4 between 3rd and 2nd, and 6 between second and first). The chipleader was a maniac who barely covered me. Between us we had two thirds of the chips. One guy was ubershort (one big blind), everyone else had about 4 bigs. I look down at queens and think "Nice", then the maniac open ships (which he's doing a lot). My bubble factor here is pretty massive (I estimated it at 2 at the time) since he covers me and I can pretty much fold to 3rd place at worst. I therefore figure I need to be a 2 to 1 favourite against his range to make the call profitable. Unfortunately his range was clearly so wide (a lot of raggy aces and lower pairs) I had to just accept that the call had to be made. Unfortunately he had the one hand I didn't really want to see (I ruled out KK+ as he'd surely have played slower), AK, and he won the race. Afterwards I had time to do the ICM/bubble factor calculations in detail and it turns out I should have folded the queens! Even if I think he's shipping A7+, any pair, and KQ, queens only has 70% equity against that range. This much I figured out on the spot: the problem is I underestmated the bubble factor. I've never seen it higher than 2 before in non-satellite tournaments after the money bubble has burst, but this was such a skewed stack distribution that it turns out the bubble factor is nearer to 3 rather than to 2, 2.6 to be exact so I need 72% equity for the call to be correct. So it's a (marginal) fold, and calling is a (small) mistake.

I did instinctively feel at the time that it was pretty marginal and that neither folding nor calling was a major mistake, and in marginal spots I tend to prefer the call, as it makes you less exploitable late on against other regulars who will have stats on how much you call in those spots. There are a few regs I know of who will only call ships with monsters late on, and that means I can profitably ship any two cards into them when I cover them. Conversely, there are other regs who call much lighter than they should mathematically, so in their case a bit of thought has to go into my shipping ranges, which makes them less exploitable.

MTTs: Mostly played feeder sats and supersats. Feedered into all the supers, so although I didn't land a package for Macau, the IWF or a GUKPT, I did win some consolation cash for the near misses making them marginally profitable overall. Big success story was winning a ticket to the $1050 WCOOP event in the Stars money added sat. Played a few and almost gave up as they're pretty crapshooty, but added money is never to be sniffed at so I persevered. They key to the one where I landed a ticket was getting two early 80/20s to hold. After that I pretty much minned my way to the ticket: satellite strategy 101. Played a few normal MTTs and notched up a few small cashes but nothing to get too excited about.

HU: Playing less of this as the Ipoker fish appear to have cottoned on to more or less correct strategy in the superturbos, maing them only very marginally profitable for me. I find if I do a batch and it goes badly it's quite upsetting, so what I've been doing of late is just firing one up when I find myself with some spare time (even when multitabling, if the MTTs or STTs I'm playing are all in the early stages, I'm basically folding 90% of hands pre and doing nothing creative post, so there's a lot of thumb twiddling time once I've clicked the Fold button on every screen). Because I'm doing them on a more ad hoc basis that attacking them in the 20 an hour way I used to, the downswings don't affect me as much. Also, because I'm multitabling while doing them, once it reaches the ship/fold stage, once I've made my decision to ship (or call a ship), I turn my attention back to the other tables, and when I go back to the HU STT all I know is my new chip total, not whether I got lucky or picked up a bad beat. Not knowing whether the other donkey called after you shipped queens with kings or 42o means never having to tilt when it turns out your queens lost.

Cash: Played some holdem, a little PLO, and some razz. All three marginally profitable (razz better than marginal), but I find cash a real grind, too much like working, so I find it harder and harder to motivate myself to do it.

Plan for next week is more of the same until I go to Cork on Friday for the Macau tourney. Also, I'll probably be interviewed on Irish Poker Radio this Wednesday, so you have been warned.

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