After just 24 hours at home after getting back from Manchester, it was time to pack my bags and head to the airport again. The destination this time was Malaga for the PokerStars Open. The first time I was ever in Spain in my life for any reason was Malaga, early in my career, also for a PokerStars event, but I hadn’t been back since. In recent years I was always in Vegas at the WSOP when it was on.
On the subject of the WSOP, many people were asking me why I wasn’t there, and one (Ray) berating me for not being there since, in his words, it’s such a good opportunity. I don’t disagree on the last point, even if almost all my close friends there are doing their bollocks this year: shoutout to my long time friend Paulina Loeliger who is the exception absolutely crushing it. This in itself gives a clue to my thinking on Vegas. Every year almost all of my friends do their bollocks, with one or two exceptions, even if (I’m virtually certain that) they’re hugely plus Ev over there, because that’s how tournaments work (particularly big field ones). Variance gonna variance.
Looking back at my own sixteen WSOP campaigns, the vast majority of the time I’ve been in the “doing their bollocks” camp, even though I’m massively profitable lifetime there (almost entirely down to one campaign (2015) and one big 300k score). I’ve reached the stage in my life and my career where I don’t need the heartache of spending five or six weeks in an unpleasant desert environment playing poorly run tournaments to almost certainly return home with less money than I went with.
Most people really don’t understand tournament variance. To be fair Ray is a sharp guy and understands it better than most (bit is running very well right now which brings with it a certain cockiness), but to make my point I asked him a hypothetical question:
“Thought experiment. Someone shuffles a deck and offers you 100/1 if you can guess the exact card on top of the deck. How much of your net worth or annual income would you bet on it?"
His response:
“Not much to be honest. Pure gamble where I’m getting double the odds. I wouldn’t gamble my money on such a high variable outcome that I cannot control"
And there you have it. Faced with a massively plus Ev option (96% long term ROI, almost certainly higher than mine in Vegas tournaments) that can be completed much faster than a summer in Vegas, Ray (and most sensible people) wouldn’t gamble very much of his net worth because he knows he’s going to lose most of the time.
Meet the housemates
Our quartermaster David Lappin can always be counted on to get us good digs on trips like this, but this time he outdid himself with a great place on the golf course with a pool. The other housemates were Thomas (Murphy) and Jason (Tompkins) who brought his wife Joy and daughter Fay to brighten things up.
From a personal point of view the poker could have gone better, but also worse. I slightly better than min cashed the main event and the mystery bounty both on one bullet I had from a Silver Pass, but bricked all the other side events including two high roller bullets. David had a particularly miserable trip with just a mystery bounty cash, Tom was down too, with Jason the only winner in the house this trip due to a deep run in the main and a few other cashes.
There were a lot of Irish in attendance, not just on the playing side, but also floor staff and dealers. I was on the same flight over as fellow IPT ambassador Tanya Masters (who got 5th in the women’s event), and a special shoutout to John Enright, who took down the Second Chance event. I had an interesting chat with John on my last night in the casino. He was understandably happy with the result, but less happy with the wheelchair accessibility at the event. I repeated some of his comments about what organisers can do to make the experience more comfortable for our wheelchair brethren in the latest episode of the Lock In (which also includes my new favourite moment ever in one of our shows: you’ll know it when you see it).
Some minor gripes
Speaking of complaints, David and I talked in the latest Lock In about what we saw as the overly officious enforcement of time banks and new rules designed to reduce or maybe even eliminate stalling. In every event, a shot clock came into effect, which gave every player 15 seconds on their first decision every hand, and 30 seconds for each subsequent decision. Additionally, players had 30 second time cards they could use at any time for anything up to an additional thirty seconds: we were all given two of these as soon as the shot clock came in, and one additional one at each subsequent break.
For those who don’t know, here’s how it works. After the dealer has dealt the cards, they press a button on the iPad in front of them that starts a countdown from 15, which gives the first player to act 15 seconds to make their decision (if they don’t act in time they have to give the dealer a time bank card: if they have none the hand is dead). Once the player acts, the dealer presses the button again to start the countdown again, and so on. The fact you have thirty seconds on all but the first decision places an additional attention load on the dealer who has to remember to press a different button to start a 30 second countdown when that happens.
In one case, I opened, got three bet, and the dealer pressed the wrong button (for 15 rather than 30 seconds). She saved the situation quickly after I protested by pressing the 15 second button again when my first fifteen seconds ran on. Kudos to her, but I don’t like the fact that this additional load is placed on both dealers and players at the point in the tournament when mistakes are very likely to be very costly. In my view, I shouldn’t have to be worrying about dealers pressing buttons on an iPad and watching to make sure they hit the right one when I’m making decisions for potentially a lot of money.
There were other instances where the dealer forgot to press the reset button when the action was on me, giving me a lot less than 15 seconds to act. I didn’t protest on any of these occasions as I’m not an asshole trying to make the dealers already very difficult job even more difficult, and I never had a decision tricky enough to take more than the 7-9 seconds I actually had, but were I such an asshole looking to stall as much as possible, these dealer oversights afforded me the perfect opportunity to start an argument, potentially call the floor, and run down minutes rather than seconds.
I’m not the biggest fan of shot clocks in general. I understand that recreationals largely hate stalling (most but not all: some I know actually enjoy it as what they see as an extra strategic dimension), and to be honest I do too. Interminable bubbles where everyone is taking two minutes or more on every decision are pure torture, so I understand the argument for shot clocks. Whether they’re worth the sacrifices involved (recreationals flustered into hasty bad decisions, the almost total loss of an easygoing social atmosphere at the table that accompanies their introduction) is an argument for another day. As an online professional used to making quick decisions, I recognise they give me an advantage over less experienced players who aren’t as clear on their ranges and used to acting quickly, but I’m not convinced it’s a fair one.
However, I absolutely hate a new winkle Stars have introduced: dealers are instructed to keep an eye on all the players, and call the floor if any player seems to be using the full 15 seconds for every decision. This places an additional burden on dealers, and I really don’t see what the issue here is. 15 seconds isn’t very long: if one player at the table is taking it on every decision, what’s the big deal?
It did become a big deal near the bubble of the mystery bounty when David Lappin was warned for taking the full 15 seconds every hand. By his account, he reduced that to about thirteen seconds after the warning, but the dealer still took the view this was clock abuse, and called the floor again. David argued his case vehemently (of course), pointing out that short stacked in a mystery bounty near the bubble, almost every hand he was dealt was plus chip Ev, but he needed time to assess the effect of ICM, the bounty aspect, and future game. On an aside the only time in my entire career I have had clock called on me was on the final table bubble of a mystery bounty under the gun after I had been crippled to less than two big blinds. This is a hellishly complicated spot when you get dealt a trash way below average hand but have to try to calculate whether you still have to go with it, factoring in ICM, the chance that someone else busts this hand (securing a ladder and saving you from posting next hand), the mystery bounty aspect (how many more callers you’re likely to get if you go with your hand under the gun compared to waiting to be big blind next hand) and everything else, and when I asked a pro at the table how long they think they’d need to decide whether to go with eight two offsuit his answer was
“Way more than the time you were given”
And there in lies the problem. If you asked your average unstudied recreational (or floor person, who typically has a similar level of strategic understanding), you’ll get one of two snap answers, either “you have to go with any two because you’re so short” or “you have to fold because your hand is so bad”, so to them the pro taking two minutes trying to decide what to do must be just stalling.
My view is fairly straightforward: if you give players 15 seconds to make decisions, they should have 15 seconds on every decision. If you give them time bank extension cards, they should be able to use them any way any time they want. However, there seems to be a view among some organisers that they can only be used when you have a difficult decision with the cards you have been dealt right now. As I said, I disagree. Tournaments are not just about the cards you are dealt, there’s a host of other strategic factors, and the shot clock and time extensions introduces new ones. Rather than trying to stop that, I think TDs should just accept it. It’s impossible to police if someone has a valid difficult decision or not, and TDs are rarely qualified to make such determinations.
Another rule I hate is the virtual all in rule (if most of your stack is already in, you’re not allowed to use your time extension cards). This introduces ambiguity about what exactly “most” means in this case, and an unintended consequence of this might actually lead to more rather than less stalling.
Example: you know you’re going to be forced all in in the next orbit. You also know that if you allow the big blind to hit you, you’re not going to be allowed to use your time cards because of this rule. You’re near a pay jump very likely to be reached in the next five minutes, and you have five minutes worth of time cards. What’s the only intelligent thing to do in this spot? Use your time cards while you can. If you’re under the gun, you should sit there throwing in the time cards until the pay jump is either reached, or you run out of time cards. That’s five minutes of everyone’s life they’re not getting back that might never have to have been wasted (if the player knew they could use them next hand in the case the pay jump wasn’t reached during the current one).
There is a relevant precedent here. For years, the WSOP TDs used to stop updating the clock with the number of runners remaining in the mistaken belief that this would reduce stalling (players wouldn’t stall when they had no idea how far from the bubble they were). For years, I argued that this was counterproductive, as players erred on the side of caution and started stalling as soon as this part of the tournament arrived. You’re under the gun and the clock says you’re 40 from the money but you know from r patience it might be only 2 and the bubble might go this hand: of course you’re going to stall as much as you can get unless money means little or nothing to you. On the other hand, if the clock is up to date and you trust it, and you see you’re still 20 away….your incentive to stall is greatly reduced.
I was proven right when the (excellent) WSOP app arrived. Now, dealers can eliminate a player on their device as soon as it happens, and the app instantly updates the player count on the clock. And guess what: bubbles were suddenly much faster. Yes, people still stalled when there were ten or less or whatever away, but not when there were 50 but they thought it might be only ten.
As I said, I think once you introduce a shot clock and time bank cards you have to accept they add new strategic dimensions. Near the bubble of that mystery bounty where David got into an argument with the floor, I was short enough that I couldn’t play many hands, but not so short I was likely to bubble. However, because I was in such an ICM coffin, I wanted the bubble to go as soon as possible, preferably before the blinds hit me again and took a quarter of my stack. At this point, I was in late position, so really want the bubble to go before I have to post again. A player busts in early position, leaving the under the gun seat open two hands later. As the dealer shuffles, I see out of the corner of my eye that they’re breaking a table. I’m now clearly rooting for a player to arrive and occupy the free seat at my table before the current hand ends. That will give me a whole extra free hand (and an extra player at the table taking time to be dealt in and decide what to do) so it’s clearly to my advantage. As it’s folded around to me, I see players from the broken table (which couldn’t be farther away from ours) take their seats at other tables, but not ours. I also see one player at the broken table who is taking longer to gather his chips, and realise two things: he must be the one coming to our table, and if I fold quickly he’s likely to get to the table too late to pay the blinds. So what do I do? I use a time extension, which ensures that he does arrive with about five seconds to spare…and a few hands later when I’m under the gun, the bubble bursts.
You might not think saving myself those two big blinds is a big deal, but anyone who knows anything about mystery bounty strategy (buy the book) will recognise what a difference it can make, and indeed did make in this specific example. The following day, the mystery bounties came into player, and I coveted three players at my table I wouldn’t have covered if I had two big blinds less.
In conclusion
Wow, that was quite the detour. I do t want to give the impression it’s a massive gripe because it isn’t: it’s just a minor one that takes a long time to try to explain fully.
Overall, I have nothing but good things to say about the staff who worked the event: dealers, floor staff, reg and payout people, take a bow. You blow away your competition across the pond in Vegas, and are the biggest reason why I’d much rather spend a mid summer’s week in Malaga.
On my last day in Malaga, I walked back to the venue to meet Willie Elliot and his brother Dode. As I walked through the summer sun, I remembered previous trips to Spain, and wondered how much longer I'd be doing this for. In the cab to the airport, Willie and I reminisced about a trip to
Marbella 13 years ago when Willie drove me around the hills. Willie asked
"Do poker players retire?"
which I took to mean "Will you ever retire?"
My answer was that my past to this point indicates I lose interest in my obsessions when I realise I've plateaued. Chess was first: as soon as it became clear I'd never be a grandmaster I lost interest in a game that had held my thoughts captive all through my teens. Bridge and backgammon fell by similar waysides, as did marathon running in my late 30s. When it comes to poker I do know the game will one day pass me by, as it does everyone, but I still have no sense that that day is here, or even near. And even when it does come, I imagine I'll still show up at the Irish Open and maybe the WSOP main event every year for as long as I can. Unlike the other activities I quit, fleeting glory is still possible long into your decline.
Next up for me is a week at home catching up on some writing, coaching and study, then on July 6th I fly to Vegas to enter the WSOP main event the following day, which is day 2. I have a return flight booked to London late on the 9th for the Party event there, which I will have to miss if still in the main late on day 4. In that scenario, I'll have to skip London and will probably stay to the end of the series, but either way I'll be home in time for the Summer in Dublin in the Green Isle.
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