Barcelona: A chip and no chair, and an invisible man

 Outside of Vegas, and possibly London, Barcelona is the foreign place I have played the most poker. It’s hard not to love the place with its easy pace of life, excellent array of places to eat, and sun and sand. 

Seniors

My first event was the Seniors: in fact, I timed my arrival to get there in time to play it from the start. As much as I love a late reg, I think there’s particular value in being there at the start of Seniors. 

My record in Seniors is quite different from my record in other tournaments. It started abysmally, albeit over a small sample: I think I failed to cash my first ten. Small sample or not, I think I played those early ones very sub optimally, with a basic game plan of trying to run them over with or without the cooperation of the deck. I remember one in Barcelona after I’d learned the hard way patience and nut peddling are better strategies in these where I folded for three hours, before picking up kings in the big blind. By the time it got to me, under the gun had opened for 6x, and the entire table except for one player (nit) had called. With 50 big blinds out there already, I considered shoving my 100 big blinds, but eventually decided to raise to half my stack, reasoning that if anyone were to call such a ridiculous bet it would be the worst player at the table, and I could get the other 50 big blinds if he caught a piece (or thought I hadn’t : you heard a lot of “I put you on ace king” in those days). I still think that’s good strategy, but sometimes the worst player at the table in a seniors is….almost everyone. I watched in horror as they all called, an ace flopped, and now I have to check fold. 

It may not have worked on that occasion, but my record in seniors since is insanely good. I cash most of the ones I play, and final table more of them than most people cash them. When I do make the final table, I usually make it to the final four, though I have yet to win one. That’s not to say they’re as insanely soft as they were when I first started playing them. Seniors these days study harder and smarter a lot more than they used to. If I were to characterise most seniors events these days, I’d say that the average recreational is a lot more studied than in non seniors events, but they also contain a lot less pros than non seniors events, so overall they’re still significantly softer. 

On this occasion it was fairly smooth sailing until the final table, and I was reasonably pleased with my fourth place finish and cash for €19k that meant I was, in the words of Willie Elliot, “freerolling the festival”

A new format and missing the Seniors High Roller

Stars unveiled an interesting new format in Barcelona they’re calling “no bubble” tournaments. The idea is straightforward enough: it basically borrows the milestone concept and takes it into day one of a regular tournament. In this case, if a player reached 6x the starting stack at any point on day one, they bagged for day two and left.  Simple enough, but one question it raises is “what happens when there aren’t enough chips left for anyone to reach 6x?”

David and I initially assumed the remaining players played on until one player had all the chips, and they bagged whatever amount that was and advanced into day two as the shortest remaining stack.

This, however, was not the case. What would actually happen (and I say would because what actually did happen is the last player to reach 180k was the last player in the flight, which will probably happen about half the time in practise) is that all the players would play on until one player had all the remaining chips but they would

(1) not be allowed to bag them and advanced into to day 2 (they would instead be eliminated from the tournament)

(2) not even receive a full min cash but only whatever fraction of it their stack divided by 6x starting represented

A chip and no chair

The idea of a player being eliminated when they still have chips seems like an anathema to me. One of the beauties of tournament poker is the whole “chip and a chair” concept: the idea that as long as you have even one chip left, you can still win the whole tournament. I played the event not realising this was the case and can tell you I would have been a very angry bunny if I was the last player standing with, say, only 4 starting stacks instead of the required six, and was told that not only was I eliminated from the tournament, but also my reward for multiplying my stack by 4 was to get less than the buyin back. 

I spoke to a number of people whose opinion I respect like Tobias Leknes, Matt Savage, David Docherty and a few others who shall have to remain anonymous and they universally agreed the only sensible thing to do is less the player advance to day 2 with whatever stack they have. Tobias pointed out that the current rules incentivize the final remaining players to collude to ensure that one of them ends up with all the chips, as those chips are much more valuable still in the tournament than being cashed out at a heavily discounted rate. 

That one concern notwithstanding, I think this is an interesting innovation I’d like to see tried again in the future (but I skipped the second one because abuse of this rule and wouldn’t play one that doesn’t allow the lady player standing to bag and advance). 

In retrospect I was a bit annoyed with myself for having played this event which prevented me from playing the seniors high roller, which I feel is one of the best spots if not the very best for me personally at the festival. 

Satellite success

It’s not exactly a secret I’m pretty good at satellites. My success rate in the new fangled milestones might not be as high as in the more traditional ones (I doubt anyone’s is: they don’t have the same possible skill edges) but it’s still pretty damn high. On this occasion I won two EPT main event satellites (and would have had a third if my Kings had held against tens). Although I don’t think I’ll be playing many EPTs going forward for reasons I’ll explain in a future blog post, when I do I’ll definitely be prioritising satellites. 

PokerStars Open main event 

This one I was very happy to bag on one bullet (I had two to fire from online satellites), and I actually got a good spin going on day 2 mainly thanks to a wild French player who I dubbed “the invisible man” because he showed up in a hoodie, sunglasses and a mask that left none of his face visible. There’s wild and there’s wild: to give you an idea of what wild meant in this case he

(1) open shoved almost half the hands he was dealt for 100 bbs+

(2) reshoved T3s over a UTG open in early position

(3) called a 20 bb jam in the small blind with 76o

(4) defended his big blind with 94o and jammed for 25 times pot on an AKJ board 

I was lucky enough to be dealt JJ when he open jammed T9o UTG, and got some more donations. Unfortunately while he’d arrived at the table as one of the chipleaders in the whole tournament, he didn’t last very long even though he ran like God on the table. We were all sad to see him go, and after he left a series of bad outcomes saw me bust well into the money but well short of the big prizes.

EPT main event 

After those early successes, I hit a mid festival slump with a lot of near bubble experiences. I fired my two satellite bubbles in the EPT main event. I decided to skip day 1A to concentrate on the satellites. My early reg bullet on day 1B was maybe the most uneventful of my career. I record all my hands in big events like this to post and dissect on Simplify Poker, but this thread won’t make for riveting reading. I won the very first hand with a cbet, but that would prove to be the only time I was above starting stack. I lost a chunk with second best hand in a 3 bet pot which knocked me back below 20k, and an unsuccessful river overbet bluff left me with less than 10k. I got it back up to 20k at dinner, but then basically got dealt out. 

My second bullet was a max late reg Day 2 one. I got a pretty rough table draw with Brock Wilson to my immediate left and Matas Cimbolas to his immediate left, but still managed to get to 60k and beyond several times. Then I got dealt out for one entire 90 minute level, which pushed me back into jam or fold territory, and I ended up jamming KJs into JJ and not getting there despite flopping a flush draw. 

Giving it back

Going into the last couple of days it was actually possible I could end up with a small losing trip (it shows how quickly buyins can mount up that even when you start with $30k in cashes you can end up down) due to a series of bricks that mostly resulted from people catching 1 to 3 outs against me on the river if I bricked everything I could play, but I had a good last full day. I cashed the mystery bounty on one max late reg bullet, then cashed the 1K freezeout also on one max late reg bullet. There’s a lot of nuance to max late regging a mystery bounty where the bounties are in play before ITM, and you have two considerations pulling you in different directions:

(1) you’re much more likely to be able to nit it to the money because of the high attrition rate 

(2) you are however incentivised to gamble more even before the bounties come into play to put yourself in a position to chase them

Specifically in the Stars ones, the mystery bounties make up only a third of the prize pool, and are not massive because of this and the fact they come into play earlier than in most mystery bounties, meaning they’re worth in average not much more than a buyin (and therefore a starting stack). It’s probably impossible to solve for the different incentives so maybe it should just be a matter of personal style and preference whether to take a swashbuckling approach to gamble up a stack that lets you chase bounties, or a more cautious approach that will lock up at least the min cash a lot of the time. I decided to play a looser style at the start to try to be competitive for the bounties when they arrived, and got up to over 100k on a few occasions but then lost all ins to the point it was fairly clear I should probably just fold into the money (which I did) unless I got dealt premiums (which I didn’t). 

Card death continued after the bubble broke, which is particularly frustrating in a mystery when you know for sure your shoves, light or otherwise, are getting called. My last two hands were unorthodox short stack play straight out of my three bigs and less playbook, which I will post on Simplify Poker and possibly here in a future blog. 

The final crossbar 

Making day 2 of the 1k freezeout gave me an unusual sweat in day two: if I lasted more than 5 hours I’d have to miss my flight. I had half average but made rapid progress, multiplying my stack by 4 in the first hour or so. At that stage I was eyeing up the 100k up top thinking that would be a good reason to have to book another flight, but I lost a massive one for double average with just over forty players left (AJ < A5) and never recovered. 

Overall though, I was very happy with my performance and play at the festival, continuing a recent run of live form. The venue itself is class, maybe my favourite casino in the world. An Irish player commented to me that the energy is so much better than in Vegas casinos, and I completely agree. It’s hard to put a finger on why that is, but they seem to get the balance right between gambling and other activities like bars and the best casino restaurants I’ve seen anywhere. Toby Stone and his team of floor staff and dealers are the best in the business and create an efficient but friendly atmosphere. Everyone from the reg staff to security to the payouts play their part in a well oiled machine. I saw several dealers skilfully deescalate potentially explosive situations expertly, and each time I thought about how much worse these kinds of things are handled at, for example, the WSOP. 

Generally, when I look back at trips years later, it's not so much how I did financially that I remember and more who I had fun meeting, and this trip will be no different. Particular shoutouts to Pargo, David Docherty, Jamie Burland (who I hadn't seen in years), Rania Nasreddine and all the players who stopped me to say how much my books had done for their games.

The attempted mugging incident

I won’t go into detail on this here as I put a video up on social media about it, but David and I were the victims of an attempted pickpocketing turned robbery with a physical assault element (David much more so than I). My video wasn’t well timed as it went up while David was still sleeping off the incident so he woke up to a flood of concerned messages from family members worried as to why they weren’t hearing from him, probably the last thing he wanted after the trauma of the night before. I may revisit it in a future blog focusing on the game theory aspect of the mugging and how they affected the decisions I made in the heat of the moment (cos that’s how my brain work: everything is GTO) but for now I will say 

(1) both David and I are very grateful for all the concerned messages we received

(2) my reason for posting about it was just to warn people visiting Barcelona to be careful and pay attention to their surroundings particularly late at night near the casino, and hopefully learn from the mistakes we made on the night

(3) the incident while quite traumatic would not stop either of us from attending events in Barcelona in future. As I said at the start, Barcelona is a great city, and this is just one dark undercurrent to be aware of so as to reduce the risk in future 

What next?

Next up for me on the live front is IPT Limerick on September 5th, and the next foreign trip is to Castellon in early October for the Party stop there. October will be a busy month live, with Killarney following hot on the heels of Castellon, and the IPO just after Killarney. Until then, I will be focusing mostly on online, content, coaching and writing. The next book with Barry Carter is currently being reviewed by beta readers and we hope to have it out sooner rather than later. Watch this space!

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My first ever poker lesson

 A different time

I was ten or eleven years old when I first saw Sergio Leone’s classic spaghetti western “The Good The Bad And The Ugly”. If you’re wondering how I managed to see an R rated movie at such a tender age, the answer is Brother Flannery. He was the unusually progressive headmaster of the Christian Brother secondary school in Enniscorthy (where I grew up). Mid 70s rural Ireland was a grim impoverished backward place where exposure to the wider world was limited to one heavily censored state owned TV station and two state owned radio channels that were very insular and parochial. Schools were poorly funded, relying on bake sales, student concerts (my first eexposure to rock came watching a final year student deliver a thunderous electric guitar rendition of Springsteen’s “The River” in the same concert hall where I watched The Good The Bad and the Ugly, but that’s another story) and jumble sales to raise money for anything more than the bare necessities.

It was in this environment that Brother Flannery had a brainwave that would simultaneously raise funds for the school and the cultural awareness of the school’s students. He started hustling movie distributors to let him screen movies that were no longer in the cinema on lazy Monday afternoons in that concert hall in school. He not only didn’t care about the very strict age censorship laws in Ireland of the time: he blatantly broke them, screening only adult rated movies to kids not just in secondary school but in the attached primary school too. Price of admission was pitched at the level of an average week’s pocket money, and the movies were carefully selected crowd pleasers that also felt like we were getting one over on our parents by even watching. Thus it was that by the time I entered my teens, I’d already seen Alfie (starring Michael Caine as a playboy with morals that would be deemed questionable even now, let alone back then in a country still in the iron grip of the Catholic  Church), Jaws (which scared the shit out of me and prevented me from entering the sea for many years), the Italian Job, True Grit, the Godfather and all the Leone spaghetti westerns. But it was The Good The Bad and the Ugly that lives in my memory 50 years on, and almost certainly ignited my life long love for cinema and game theory. That second one probably requires some explanation, which I’ll get to in due course. 

A different world 

From the opening scene, I felt I wasn’t just watching the movie, I felt I’d been sucked into its world, a messy dangerous morally ambiguous one with no clear lines between the good guys and the bad guys, no predictable plot line, and no guarantees that good would triumph or bad would be punished (if such distinctions could even be discerned).  No guarantees of anything in fact, other then an utterly engrossing cinematic experience that provided ponder fuel for months if not years after. 

 If you’ve never seen the movie and intend to (and you really should: Quentin Tarantino has called it the greatest movie ever made), stop reading now because I’m going to spoiler the ending. 

The final scene 

The movie meanders through multiple threads and several memorable scenes to a final one that many (including Quentin and me) regard as the single greatest scene in the history of cinema. Three characters stand in triangular formation in a tense standoff that will explode into a truel (a three way winner takes all shootout). All three men know that there is a considerable amount of gold buried in one of the graves, but only Blondie (“The Good”, played by Clint Eastwood) knows which grave. He has been captured by Angel Eyes (“The Bad”, played by Lee Van Cleef) but is refusing to divulge the name on the golden grave, because he’s no idiot and understands that as soon as he does, Angel Eyes has no reason not to shoot him. So a Mexican standoff initial Nash equilibrium has been reached where Angel Eyes can’t find the gold because he doesn’t know which grave, and Blondie can’t because there’s a gun on him. The third participant Tuco (“The Ugly”, played by Eli Wallach in the standout performance in the movie) has gotten to the graveyard first, only to find that the name Blondie gave him was not the golden grave but a misdirection. 

The new game to break the stalemate 

Blondie proposes a way out of this Nash equilibrium Mexican standoff where none of the men can claim the gold that appears to allow them all some possibility to do so. In return for a gun, he will write the name above the golden grave on a stone, place it in the centre of the triangle, so that the winner of the truel can claim the gold unchallenged by the other two.

Angel Eyes agrees, setting up the final truel. Each of the men stand far apart in a triangular formation and eye each other up. They are far enough apart that hitting the target with the first shot is not a certainty for all three, and each man faces a strategic decision when someone finally goes to draw their gun: who should they shoot at first? The movie pans from face to face in a series of iconic extreme close ups, as each man weighs up his options and decides. 

Game of skill

There is, however, a twist that will resonate with poker players. There’s a considerable skill differential between the three participants. 

We know from previous scenes that Tuco is the slowest draw and worst shot of the three. In discussions of the game theory of the final truel I’ve read since, the consensus is that his chances of successfully hitting the target on his first attempt is probably somewhere in the region of 33%, the number ten year old me roughly assigned him as I attempted to puzzled towards my first ever game theory solution, without knowing that it was game theory (or even the term “game theory”). We also know that Blondie is by far the best shot: in fact he’s so good there’s no chance of him missing. He’s already demonstrated multiple times he’s able to hit a hat on a head at greater distance (and even a taut rope from great distance), so he’s basically 100% to hit his first target. Angel Eyes is also a formidable and fast shot, though not as certain to hit the target as Blondie. It’s not clear which of them is faster on the draw,  but both are super fast. 

Angel Eyes, the miz reg

As the cameras pan between the three faces, they look from one opponent to the other, clearly weighing up who it is best to shoot at first. Angel Eyes has the easiest decision: he should clearly try to eliminate Blondie, his most dangerous opponent. He apparently works this out and draws first (although it’s not clear who he intends to shoot at as he’s beaten to the draw by the quicker Blondie).

Tuco, the ugly fish  

decision is by far the most interesting and complex. He knows he’s the worst shot, and the slowest draw, and the others know it too. He’s the fish in this game. But he knows he’s a fish, which is important. To work out his best strategy, we can start with a worst one. If he shoots either of the other two, he gets headsup with a faster opponent who is also a better shot, a scenario he’s almost certain to lose. So his best strategy is not to shoot at either one, but to wait to see what transpires between the other two and then shoot at the one still standing. This negates his slow draw advantage almost guaranteeing he gets at least one shot off before he’s fired on.

Blondie, the apex predator

On the face of it, Blondie ‘s best strategy seems straightforward: shoot at the biggest threat, Angel Eyes. But it’s not that straightforward. If he does that, and if he realises Tuco is smart enough to figure out he should hold back to see whether he shoots Angel Eyes or Angel Eyes shoots him before getting off first shot at the survivor, Tuco is now also a threat. It seems like he has no good solution (which is often the case in three player games): if he shoots at Angel Eyes, Tuco will get a free shot at him, but if he shoots at Tuco, Angel Eyes will. 

However, there’s another twist that will resonate with poker players: information asymmetry. 

The twist

Unknown to both other players, Blondie has a major advantage: he alone knows that Tuco’s gun has no bullets (he took them out himself in an earlier scene). Knowing therefore that Tuco is no threat, his decision is clear: shoot Angel Eyes. Which he does. 

The final twist

It is revealed that Blondie never wrote the name of the grave on the stone. Why would he? So the other two are competing for a prize they can’t win (Tuco doubly so given he doesn’t even have bullets in his gun). He was essentially bluffing, knowing the bluff in itself would always get through. 

The final final twist

Blondie doesn’t bother shooting Tuco. Again, why would he? He’s no threat: he’s just the fish in the game. You see this dynamic in soft live cash games. Several years ago I was involved in staking a skilful player in a live cash game that was incredibly soft except for one apex predator. The apex predator was incredibly charming and considerate when dealing with the fish in his game, but as soon as the other skilful player was introduced, he recognised the threat and went after them in every way he could, both fair and unfair. He was Blondie, and he recognised them as Angel Eyes, who he must eliminate at first opportunity. The fish? Let them live.  

Fifty years on

I recently rewatched the movie with my wife. As I did, I flashed back fifty years to young me, grappling with concepts like game theory, equilibrium, information asymmetry and bluffing for the first time, at a time I knew none of those terms. I realised retrospectively that that movie was my first important poker lesson, and that viewed through a poker lens, that final beautiful scene is poker in all but name. 

I also realised there’s potentially another lesson for poker in this cinematic masterpiece that meanders lazily towards its most masterful and memorable conclusion with scenes that take three to four times longer than we are used to, but in so doing ratchets up the tension to something no other western has ever achieved. In a world of fast cuts and lightning speed edits, it allows itself to dwell on a single face for what seems like an eternity, to allow the viewer to reflect on what’s happening around and inside that face, rather than rushing to a conclusion like an over excited incel on a first date. It doesn’t try to cram as much as possible into every second, but creates moments that will last forever in the minds of those who see them. 

Slow down

There may be a lesson for a poker world currently obsessed with speed and shot clocks. When we recall the WSOP main event that has just been in years to come, what will live in our memories? The rapid rushed decisions under shot clock time pressure? Or that incredible tank on the river by J3s and the call that followed it that basically decided everything? Has there been a more thrilling moment in recent poker history? And how much could have been lost if Saaskillinen had only been given 30 seconds to make the decision? 

In a world of fast food and rapidly consumed quickly forgotten pop culture, there has to be some room for movies that will live a lifetime in a ten year old boy’s brain grappling with moral and strategic complexity for the first time. 

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Trophy!

 On the plane over, I bumped into James O’Brien, one of the real gentlemen of Irish poker, and we shared an uber into town.  I always enjoy chatting with James because he’s not only a gent, but he has some interesting insights and opinions on live poker, as you’d expect from someone with his excellent track record in it. 

The first face I saw when I walked into the Alea to max late reg the Party Poker main event was one of my favourites in poker but also unexpected, as you don’t expect to see globetrotters like Jack Hardcastle in a 500 quid main event but there he was, just off his flight home from WSOP. The last time I saw Jack was only a few weeks previously in Vegas, when we were both wondering if the ineptitude of WSOP staff would prevent us from max late regging the main event in time. 

On this occasion I was a little early, and Jack persuaded me to take what I call the Dan Wilson strategy, as he was the first I heard segue that if late regging is good, regging a little bit before it closes is also good as if what often happens does happen (the snap bust out) you get a second equally profitable bite at the cherry. 

On this occasion my first bite of the cherry lasted one hand. I raised KT of diamonds in the lojack, Joel Baxter called in the small blind, and the big blind came along. The flop came T62 two spades one diamond, I bet small when checked to, and Joel now raised. After the big blind folded I had to decide what to make of the raise. As anyone who has purchased the Simplify Poker multiway course will know, when you’re the player in the sandwich (between an opener who has cbet and a third player who has checked their entire range) as Joel was in this case, you’re generally supposed to play few if any raises, as the top of your range wants to keep the third player in, and it’s difficult to protect two ranges (a call one and a raise one). My decision now whether to raise (which would be a shove) or a call comes down to how much equity I think Joel’s bluffs have (if he has a better hand it’s just a cooler at this SPR, and he likely doesn’t raise sets anyway). Joel is a good thinking aggressive player so I quickly decided he wouldn’t bluff total air here so his bluffs likely come from the many flush draws he can have, and gutshots. I can get the gutshots to fold away a decent amount of equity to my shove, and while he will call his flush draws, I don’t mind getting the money in as a favourite either. 

As it happens he had K9 spades and hit his flush. Joel, who I rate as one of the best of the rising generation in Ireland, put the chips to good effect by making the final table (and he stopped me for a few words of advice before going back on the last day), ultimately finishing fifth. One of the things I like about Joel is his temperament. Just after busting he told he was off to try to win the Last Chance side event. When I told him max late reg was still open on the high roller (I was about to avail of the option), he dismissed the idea of entering saying "I'm losing in that field". I don't think that's true (and told him so in the time) but the fact he did shows a realism most young players lack, and a focus on game selection most would benefit from. 

Take 2

The second bullet went better and I ended up bagging just over 2x starting. Afterwards, I went to eat with Jack to an excellent pizza place he told me Robbie Bull recommended. Jack had a fairly miserable WSOP this year but was still in good spirits,  happy to be home, and as good company as ever. 

Day 2

My day 2 of the main went well until it didn’t. I didn’t manage to make much progress on my starting stack or until a good chance to do so presented itself about 20 away from the money. I shoved AKs over a raise and a call but lost the flip to JJ. No regrets though. 

I fired a bullet each at both side events losing 80/20s to bust both before retiring to my hotel thinking there was a very good chance I was going to have my first brick trip in a while. 

Sunday Bloody Sunday 

I woke up to rain, and vacillated on where I was going to have breakfast. I wanted to repeat my breakfast from the previous day when I found an excellent egg place called Egg Daddy but didn’t fancy the one mile walk in the rain. I decided to try the breakfast in the Ibis Budget where I was staying, but it looked so grim and the rain had faded into drizzle so after checking if the casino do breakfast (they don't) I headed to Egg Daddy.

By now, I wasn't feeling too optimistic about avoiding the dreaded trip of bricks. I also wasn't too optimistic about how good the 1k High Roller would be, given the number of quality local players hanging around. This and the fact that I wanted to give myself as many bites at the cherry as possible (volume is king) meant I decided to enter the mystery bounty from the start. I ended up final tabling and busting in 5th (no bounties though, and not even a sweat for one despite having a healthy stack until near the end) just in time to late reg the high roller (which was better than I feared despite the presence of the local heavy hitters) after a trip to Mother Hubbard's for some sustenance.

High roller

I ran pretty well in this, and sensationally well on the final table, which is how you win tournaments, and I was thrilled to finish this one out. Something about the structure of this tournament (fast but not too fast) seems to really suit my game, and it was my fifth FT and fourth cash in it in the last year. I got 5th in Birmingham (when my good friend and Simplify Poker member Sid won), 4th in Madrid, before a tilting loss headsup to my friend and Simplify Poker member, the Power Path king himself, Matt Harniman, in London a few weeks ago.

Matt was on the rail for this one, and said graciously afterwards he was particularly delighted for me after he'd thwarted me in London. Simplify Poker member James Rooney was also on the final table (he ran badly but still managed fifth) and joined Matt on the rail. Before the final table started, my neighbour David Anderson asked for a selfie, explaining he'd gone from reading one of my books by the pool in Turkey 3 weeks ago to qualifying for this event online for £1. It was David I got headsup with, and needed an Ace on the river to seal the deal against and avoiding the stacks flipping to 2:1 against me. Special shoutout to Kye Hamilton who I identified as the danger on the table at the start of the FT, but ran very well against, cracking his aces 4 handed and then winning a massive flip.

I'm not an emotional person when it comes to poker, which helps me weather the storms and keep showing up when it's not going well, but also means I often end up taking little or no pleasure when it goes well. On this occasion though, the presence of a boisterous celebratory rail of Irish and Simplify members and seeing how happy they were for me did transfer to me, and I really enjoyed the few drinks we had afterwards. Massive thank you to everyone in this photo for making the win feel extra special.

Some more shoutouts

The contingent of travelling Irish to these Party stops continues to grow in number and strength, and several others got scores in addition to those already mentioned. Paul Leckey got 6th in the high roller (and also cashed the PLO Masters), one of the DCU crew Adam Green got tenth in the main and third in the 4/5/6 Double board (an event also cashed by another of the DCU crew Jack Reynolds as well as John Burke), another one of the same crew Alex Gleeson won the Faded Spade event (which Michael Breen also final tabled), and Mark Johnston final tabled both the mini main and the Red Rivers event/

It was also a very good festival for non-Irish Simplify members, including my neighbour on the Mystery Bounty final table Stephen Keay, and Glen Jones took down the Crazy Pineapple event. It was great to meet so many Simplify members and put faces to names I see every day on the Academy.

The locals

The general consensus among the Irish playing there for the first time is there's nowhere more fun to play than Glasgow, because of the unique banter of the locals. At one stage I was caught between locals Raymond Peacock and Stephen Milloy in the mystery bounty (which they ended up getting headsup in explains to me

“See, that’s the great thing about Glasgow, we don’t even know each other but we can say that to each other”

At one point Stephen told us about an industrial accent that cost him a leg, which made him indsult later to Raymond ("You two legged prick!") all the funnier. 

At one stage the masseuse was asked

“How much is the massage?”

“One pound fifty a minute”

“I’ll take thirty seconds”

The Irish poker tour will return to the same venue for the Glasgow Poker Festival November 3rd to 8th, and I'd heartily recommend it as an antidote to the November blues. Next up for me is Barcelona next Saturday (I plan to spend 12 days there but will extend if I go deep in the EPT), followed by the Limerick IPT stop on September 5th. And I've already booked my flights for the next Party poker tour stop in Castellon (October 5th to 11th). See you there!

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Summer in Dublin

Summer in Dublin is always good fun, ever since it first appeared on the poker scene. This year the fun started before the first card was even dealt. When I renewed my deal as an ambassador to the Irish Poker Tour, one of the things we decided could be fun was for me to name three players as Ones To Watch before each stop I attended. One unanticipated response after I chose my first three before The Monster was I heard that various people were disappointed or even annoyed I’d chosen the three I chose over them. 

This time round, I’d no sooner nominated Darren Harbinson, June Jenkins and Michael Breen as my three to watch this time than I had Ray Wheatley on to me:

“Shocked I wasn’t top pick. A few live degens and June. I’ve crushed online for 3 months solid. No respect in the game. 

Plus Ger Keenan, killing the sats. Definitely a dark horse this week.

Robbie Bryant is the hottest man in Irish poker. Let’s have my 3 picks versus your team of donks”

Before I knew it, Ray had hustled me into a bet, which I publicised on social media for the banter. Ray is pretty much unparalleled in the banter department, but crucially I was also certain our friendship would survive anything said in the heat of the moment, which hasn’t always been the case with others when I’ve gone into bets like this in the past. 

That escalated fast…

As the festival kicked off, Paul Carr sent me a message saying he wanted to get involved. He nominated himself, Ray Bryant and Mark Johnston as the three to take on my picks and Ray’s Tullamore Thirds. It was agreed €100 would be the buyin each player chipped in, and the €900 would be split three ways by the winning trio. Two of my three didn’t fancy it so I put up their €100, which worked out well for me given we won so I trebled my money without even being on a team. As it happened, we won in a canter with Darren Harbinson as our MVP getting us off to a good start winning the PLO, and the best possible finish by winning the main event too! The two Rays offered some token resistance by going deep in the 400 side event (Wheatley chopping it headsup). 

Killarney Team competition 

Ray suggested we expand this to all comers for Killarney, and increase the buyin to €500 per team. Here’s how it’ll work

(1) I will name my three to watch. They’ll be given the opportunity to join the bet if they want. If they decline I’ll put the money up

(2) Ray will nominate a team, and accept entries from other teams of three (Ray is going to administer the whole thing)

(3) No player can be on more than one team. In the case a player is named on more than one team, the first one submitted counts, and that player will have to be replaced by another player on the other team(s)

Form and tournament poker

Two things are true of tournament poker, yet seem on the surface self contradictory. It is all one session, but you also want to live in the moment, one decision at a time. You want to be able to zoom out, and in. What you don’t want is to focus on the recent past and the near future: yet it is precisely this humans find easiest to do and hardest not to do. We recency bias the bejaysus out of tournament results, and focus too much on what we would like to happen in our next few tournaments. 

In the video I put out announcing my three to watch, I said that form shouldn’t really be a thing in poker, yet seems to be. Confidence helps most players make clearer better decisions, and also instils fear in opponents who believe in the rush and momentum. 

David Lappin and I discussed this recently on a Chip Race. Contrary to the popular belief that we are basically the same person, there are very clear differences between our world views. David tends to see the world in narratives (hardly surprising given his screenwriting narratives) while I see the world in probabilistic terms and view narratives as patterns we impose on random data after the event. This manifests it in many ways: David pays more attention to whether he’s up or down on any given day online or festival live, whereas I don’t even track it. When he asks me “how was your Sunday?” I have to suppress my annoyance at what I see as an irrelevant question (but is well intentioned on his part), and when he tells me he’s more willing to take a shot at the end of a festival because “he’s up already for the festival so kinda free rolling” I have to resist the temptation to eye roll. 

All this is a long winded way of saying while I was glad to final table my first event of the festival, it wasn’t because I place any special significance on “getting off to a good start” at a festival, or “keeping the momentum going” (after my two seconds in London). It’s just nice to final table any event, in and of itself. I ended up finishing 6th. 

My main event

For once, I got through on one bullet, with a comfortably above average stack. That buries the lead slightly, because I was short for most of the day, to the point I had exactly half a starting stack when late registration closed. Afterwards I made reels for the three most important hands. 

Hand 1

I’ve had a miserable start to the tournament, barely winning a pit, and we are playing the last hand before the break after which late reg (and reentry) will close. This is relevant because I felt a strong temptation to put my chips in knowing I could exercise my right to reenter if I didn’t double. The spot wasn’t the worst: a loose late position open, a 3 bet on the button by the excellent Gavonater so not necessarily a nutted hand, and I have QJo in the small blind. The big blind is tight and unlikely to get involved if I shove. I have no fold equity against Gavin but if the opener folds I only need about 40%, and as I said I can exercise my reentry option if I find myself in the other 60% of universes. 

In the end though, I stayed disciplined and folded. I’m behind Gav’s entire range even the bluffs so it’s dubious I have 40%, and I can’t always count on the other two folding in which case QJo is a spectacularly bad hand multiway. Half a stack is still worth half a buyin and shouldn’t just be punted away because you want a full stack. 

Results: Gavin got it in with AK, which would have held against my hand. 

The river check raise: they always have it, right?

I open KJo from UTG1 8 handed playing 40 bbs. The button (standard rec who likes seeing flops) calls, as does the bb (retired online pro Stephen Malone who plays recreationally now). Both cover me

Flop

T64r xxx

Turn J (still badugi)

x I b33

Button fold

BB calls

River K

Check, I b66, and he shoves.

Were he a rec I'd at least seriously consider folding, but I know he's very capable of finding bluffs here, the obvious candidates being QJ and QT.

Surprising thing to me when I ran it is if he's balanced, then the call is indifferent and I'm supposed to mostly call but fold sometimes to be unexploitable. However, nobody is ever truly balanced, and I think he's more likely unbalanced towards bluffs (it's a lot easier to have QJ QT or another bluff other than the one realistic combo I lose to)

Results: I called and he had QT

Everyone loves Jacks

Dickie Whiteside limps under the gun playing just over 30 bbs. Pretty much the whole table limped along and I find jacks in the big blind. Obviously I'm miles ahead of everyone's range so I have to raise. I'm playing 32 bbs so I make it 8 bbs, and Dickie now jams. I've not loving the spot now as he can have AA/KK/QQ and probably doesn't have underpairs. He also has AK obviously, and maybe AQ at some frequency so I start doing the maths in my head as to how much equity JJ has against his perceived ranne, but then the button (an English recreational who had lost most of his stack and the chiplead on the table in the last two hands and seemed to me quite tilted) jammed also. I now have the clearest call ever as he just never has a better hand than mine so I aborted the maths subroutine running in my head.

Dickie had AQ, the recreational 77, and I held for a treble up that basically got me a big stack to bring into day 2.

Day 2

I went in to day 2 in an aggressive mindset, not looking to lock up the cash but rather push on. I made a fast start, then lost flips versus shortie, then correctly hero called Mark Doyle, but basically yo-yoed around the stack I started with until I got AKs in for the lot against AQ and got rivered, busting in 69th (“a fun position” as Ramona drily noted as she handed me the place card to go get my cash out). 

I’ll finish with a few shoutouts: Darren again for continuing his phenomenal run of results this year. 

My friend Conal who chopped the main with him for over 30k, and Simplify Poker member Mark McKinney who fted the main (sadly just outside the chop). June Jenkins gave me the spare bed in my room, and Ray Wheatley who kept the banter levels high and supplied not only the photo of Conal above but also this photo of himself, which he pointed out is what the fans really want to see. 

I also ran into Michael Nolan who was literally the first person I ever coached over 15 years ago. We used to play satellites back in the day on Stars when chat boxes were still a thing, and some chat box banter led to a request from him for coaching and him turning up at my house a few days later. My memory isn't what it used to be but Metal Mickey as I used to call him back then is such a larger than life character I recognised before I saw him (I heard his voice from the next table). He hasn't changed or aged a day in 15 years, and is still as Metal as ever (the n in Metal is silent). He had a deep run in the main, and has been on a tear in the Dublin Poker Club recently since he returned to poker.

Next up for me is the Party tour stop in Glasgow this weekend, then Barcelona EPT and then most likely Limerick IPT. I also want to prioritise getting back in shape, after too many people in the Green Isle pointed out I'm a fat bastard now.

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3 days in Vegas: day one

 Why I decided to skip the WSOP this year

I usually decide my Vegas plans as soon as the WSOP schedule is released. This year I hummed and hawed before deciding to skip it this year for only the second time in my career (the first was back in 2012 because of the London Olympics) for a combination of reasons: a bit of Vegas fatigue (I felt burnt out at the end of my 5 week trip there last summer), other commitments like trying to get the next book finished, and trying to reduce non-essential travel to spend more time with my wife and family.

I thought I might feel a little FOMO once it started, but felt absolutely none. During the week I spent in Malaga, I kept thinking this was a much more pleasant experience than Vegas and the WSOP. However...

Why I changed my mind

As the main event loomed I did start to feel some FOMO. There's only so many times you can play the best tournament in the world. I was fairly sure I'd regret not taking my annual shot. The stars aligned in the sense that day 2 of the main fell in a week between other live commitments, and the best way to get there was via London where I had my next live commitment. So the plan was simple: fly to Vegas the day before the final day 2, do what was necessary to enter day 2 and then get a good night's sleep. My flight back got me to London just in time for my event there, so in most worlds in which I'd no longer be in the main event late on day 4, I'd catch that flight and skip the London to Dublin one.

The journey

The journey was pretty uneventful, I had a couple of hours in Heathrow which I spent walking around to make sure I got my 10k steps for the day, and that I didn't fall asleep on a bench and miss my flight. I hadn't slept much the previous night so I was hoping to tire myself out further to the point I might be able to at least nap on the plane, but no such luck. I'm notoriously bad at sleeping on planes, and wasn't helped by an unlucky seat draw (middle seat between window and aisle) but it was what it was and I mostly wrote and listened to music on the flight.

Upon arrival, there was an annoyingly long line at immigration (one of the disadvantages of coming via London rather than Dublin is you don't clear that before you fly), but not the worst. It ended up being 45 minutes and the immigration officer was very friendly and efficient when I finally made it to the top of the line.

With very little sleep in the past 48 hours and about to play the biggest tournament of the year in less than 24 hours, the plan now was to check in at Tuscany Suites, then walk the short distance to do what was needed for me to register the next day, then get an early night and as much sleep as possible before I had to play.

The best laid plans of mice and Dan

I walked back to the Horseshoe and verified myself so I could enter on the app. However, when I did and tried to buy my ticket on the app with my Revolut debit card, they tried to charge me an extra 2% (200 bucks!), despite stating that it was only credit cards (not debit cards) that this applied to. I'm not paying an extra two hundred bucks, so I try my Luxon account next. To my annoyance, when I try to fund it with my card, it objects to the apostrophe in my name on the card, something it never does at home.

Not to worry, I think, there's a Luxon help desk in the corridor. I go there and explain the situation to the very patient gentleman, who waits until I've finished my explanation, then says

"I'm nothing to do with Luxon. The desk closed hours ago. I'm just sitting here"

At this point, my only real option is to buy in with cash. Only problem is I don't have 10k in cash with me, so I send out a few messages, Smidge obliges to the tune of 2k, and Paulina says she can do the rest, but I have to go to her hotel well up the strip to get it.

I ran into Keith Touhey and Ken Griffin in town to promote their AI coach project Edgecore that is drawing a lot of favourable attention, then met Smidge who was eating steak with Dan Wilson. I then got a message from another Dan offering to buy me dinner.

Dan the man

I've known Dan for well over a decade at this point. He's had an interesting last decade to say the least. He was a satellite grinder back in the day when UKIPT and EPT satellites were my main grind, and got some satellite coaching from me. He then stepped away from poker for a while reinvented himself as a DJ in Vegas and trance musician, and released an album called "A Question of Reality" (which he very kindly gave me a CD copy of), before starting a start up that made his fortune. At this point he came back into poker as a recreational, got some more coaching from me, and won a bracelet.

As a man of leisure, he now mainly plays high stakes live PLO cash, which from what I understand supplements his existing fortune nicely. One of the things I love about Dan is that even though he's not doing it for the money any more, and he's a very generous man, he still gets that the money is the point, so he game selects well rather than just firing because he's loaded. This year, he identified that the satellites for the main were the best value, got some more coaching for me and his friend and horse Jimmy, and went at them hard for the 5 days they were running round the clock, and cleaned up. As such, he's a model professional even though this isn't his livelihood or job any more. Seeing how well he and other students did in satellites at the series this year cemented in my mind the notion that grinding the satellites hard should be an essential part in any future WSOP campaign I embark upon.

A catchup with Dan on his dime seems like a plus Ev play at this point. I meet him railing Jimmy on the bubble of a main satellite, and spirits are high when Jimmy gets over the line. We go to Dan's favourite Thai place in Spring Valley, and have a great meal with great company. Jimmy works as a floor guy at the Aria and is good people. In fact, the only flaw I can find with Jimmy is his sense of distance and geometry: he tells us his place is nearby so Dan offers to drop him off. 30 minutes later Dan and I are both questioning if "nearby" means something different to Americans.

After dropping him off, Dan very kindly drops me at Paulina's hotel. I haven't seen her in person since last Vegas even if we have done countless hours on Zoom studying together since. so it's great to see her again (and the way she always squeals my name in delight when she sees me for the first time in ages is always a highlight). She insists we have a drink together so we do: I keep it to one drink because I know from personal experience one or at a push two can actually help me sleep, but more than that can disrupt it and lead to occasional hangovers the next day.

I get back to my room shortly after midnight, a bit later than I originally planned, but actually it worked out perfectly because I was out like a light as soon as my head hit the pillow, and woke up from the deepest sleep in a while about 11 hours later, four hours before I had to play.

There was still to be another spanner in the works when it came to register, but that's a story for another day and the next blog.

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Living life in seconds

Bye bye Vegas, I barely knew you

After my shortest Vegas visit ever (just over 72 hours which I will be blogging about soon), I find myself on a plane from Vegas to London to play the latest Party UK tour stop in Stratford. I got lucky even before I landed: the two seats either side of me were unoccupied, allowing me to lie down if not exactly stretch out, which meant I got some much needed sleep given I’d only slept about 16 of my 72 hours in Vegas. 

Lappin had booked a “cosy” airbnb near the venue on the basis that he’d be occupying it alone if I was still involved in the WSOP main event. After dropping my stuff and showering, I headed straight in to late reg the main. I ended up busting second last hand of the night. 

Fading spades

The following day I headed in to play the Faded Spade side event. I ended up on the final table that included the rest of the Chip Race (David Lappin and Barry Carter). At one stage it was looking good for Barry and I to get headsup, but I ruined that when I called his shove and my ace king held against king eight. The headsup battle swung back and forth before I finally got it in flipping (88 v AJ) for pretty much all the chips and manage to hold til the river when I got Barry Greensteined. Congratulations to the winner: when we got three way I thought it was only fair to alert him to the fact that myself and Barry have written several books together, to which he quipped "So I'm the third wheel". He turned out to be the big wheel.

Deja vu in the High Roller

I was back the following day for the High Roller. I have a good record in this event on the tour, with a 4th and 5th place finish from three previous events. This time I got all the way to headsup with Matt Harniman, after being three handed with my long time Danish friend Niels who is always great fun at the table). 

Matt started with a considerable chip lead but I got it back to almost level winning most of the small pots. The headsup was a clash of styles, with my small ball going up against Matt's big pot poker. After I won the first big pot (my jacks holding versus Matt's Ace Ten), Matt was down to a few big blinds and I had over 90% of the chips. At this stage I was optimistic I was going to avoid the dreaded second place that has been my fate so often live (ironically, given that the Irish word for second is Dara), but Matt flipped his way back into it (T2 > 96, K2 > 89) and the stacks were almost level when the big hand happened.

I raised J4o on the button, and he called. 

Flop was J32 and he check raised my cbet. After some thought I decided to shove, and after a very long tank he called with 54o for an open ender. He got instant service with an Ace on the turn, and there was no miracle 5 for the chop for me on the river. That left me fuming with fumes, which went in next hand. I was dominating Matt's hand but couldn't hold.

I'm not going to lie, this one hurt a lot more than the previous night, not because it was a bigger tournament, but more because I felt I had a decent edge headsup (which wasn't true the previous night). That's poker though as they say, and Matt was gracious in victory, saying it meant a lot to slay his idol whose books had played such a big part in his development, and whose training site SimplifyPoker he'd joined. Matt explained his decision to call off with the open ender with less than 32% equity in a spot where the pot odds required 39% on the basis that while he knew he wasn't getting the the price, he felt it was his best shot to win rather than get outplayed headsup (a reasoning reminiscent to Chris Ferguson's call off with A9o headsup in the WSOP main event versus TJ Cloutier), which is fair enough. After my 12 minute cool off period after a bust, we had a drink in the bar together. For those who don't know who he is, Matt is the most successful Power Path player ever.

Next...

Although disappointed not to have closed out at least one of the tournaments in London, I was still happy to be straight back on the horse so soon after Vegas (and to make an immediate dent on my losses in Sin City). I think I'm near the top of my game as far as live goes right now, so I'm hoping the big one is coming soon. Next live poker for me is the Irish Poker Tour Summer in Dublin next week, Party's Glasgow stop, and then EPT Barcelona. Before then, my focus is on getting back in shape and eating clean, coaching, writing (the next book is nearing completion), whatever online poker I can fit in, and a webinar (on the final table coaching I offer students when they make a big final table) and more content for SimplifyPoker.

Final shoutout to Raj and the whole Party team who really do put on amazing events, and to the winner of the main event in London Daniel Smith (and Ireland's Barry Donovan who was third: Barry is a very consistent performer).

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People don't read any more

 The most common reaction I got when I told people 7 years ago I was writing a book on satellites with Barry Carter was

“Why? In this age of training videos, nobody reads any more?”

But do they?

Seven years later, the book has sold over 100 times as many copies as I was told to expect it to sell (and still sells more every month than I was told to expect lifetime), and may not even end up being my biggest seller (GTO Poker Simplified is catching it fast). 

I hear similar claims made for shorter written content: that in this age of training videos nobody reads strategy articles or newsletters, and in the age of vlogs nobody reads blogs. 

Dear diary....

I started writing this blog almost two decades ago purely for myself (I’d written a similar journal in my running days) never expecting anyone else to read it. I remember the shock the first time I ran into someone at a poker tournament who had, and I realised I was going to have to be a little more careful when I got death threats from one player angered by what I’d written. I remember the endorphin rush when I wrote my first blog that got 100 readers: imagine that, one hundred people actually reading something I’d written! I remember the first 1000 reader blog I wrote, and the first 3000, 5000, 10000, 20000 and 50000 ones. I remember my delight when the counter on the blog overall hit 100k, 200k, 500k and a million. 

It felt like the blog peaked about ten years ago, and as I got approached and paid to write for other sites and moved more towards books, my posts here slowed down and withered to the occasional piece to promote a new book or course. While I was very flattered to be asked to write for other sites (and the money was nice) I did feel a tinge of regret at abandoning the blog. One of the things I most liked about the blog was the idea that when it’s all over, I (and others) could look back for a full warts and all in running account of my poker career. I often go back to read old blogs to check if my memory of certain key events aligns with the reality I wrote at the time (and I’m often both alarmed at how widely different it is, and happy to have it to refer to. Human memory is very imperfect, we remember the retellings of events which tend to change over time like a corrupted hard drive rather than the actual event itself). It therefore saddens me somewhat that the last five years or so contain so few of these accounts. 

Don't call it a comeback

When VegasSlotsOnline decided to stop publishing written poker content earlier this year, I made a decision that rather than move to another paid site I’d revive this blog. It was predicated on people actually reading it, which I wasn’t sure they would any more. I was pleasantly surprised by the numbers who did read the first few entries, and really really surprised by how many were going back and reading old blogs once I started promoting them again. David Bowie told me once the real secret to longevity (in the music industry) was you didn’t need every album to be a hit: you just needed one every five years or so, to a new audience who would then go back and buy your older albums. Similarly with the Chip Race we know from the metrics that as long as we continue to attract new listeners, the old episodes continue to get listens as a small percentage of those new listeners dip back into the back catalogue. 

There was a time I wasn’t sure this blog would ever get to the million mark. Monthly reads had declined back into the hundreds when the overall number was around 900k, so the math indicated a million might never come (at least in my lifetime). To get there I put in a spurt of effort into both new posts and promoting the older ones.

Since then, monthly hits ticked along in the 2-3k region, which was fine, but since I started updating this blog again this year, and promoting it more, that number has increased ten fold. So don’t tell me people don’t read any more: maybe they just don’t want to read the AI slop that seems to be taking over most poker sites. 

In an effort to make this blog a complete central repository for my short written poker content I have already started moving older pieces written for now defunct sites here. I’m excited about the blog again (I genuinely think it’s fairly unique in the poker content space), grateful to everyone who reads and helps spread the word, and open to all feedback as to what I should write about.

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